yulius hermantoSwine Flu, The next pandemic?
May 10th 2009 12:06
Introduction
Many resources and scientist warn us about next flu pandemic, possible cause by swine flu. World have ever had three previous influenza-pandemics — A/H1N1 from 1918 through 1919 also known as Spanish Flu, A/H2N2 from 1957 through 1963 also known as Asian Flu, and A/H3N2 from 1968 through 1970 also known as Hongkong Flu. And Spanish Flu become the worst ever flu pandemic, caused nearly 50-100 millions people death, worldwide. And from that pandemic, we learn about prevention, preparedness, management, and policies should be made to reduce the impact of the pandemic. It can be saw from total case and death of next pandemic was less than Spanish flu.
Past pandemics were characterized by a shift in the virus subtype, shifts of the highest death rates to younger populations, successive pandemic waves, higher transmissibility than that of seasonal influenza.
Swine Flu vs Avian Flu
H5N1 or Avian influenza subtype has spread to avian populations in more than 30 countries and infected nearly 400 persons from 1997-2004, and about 80% persons who get infected die from it, compare to Swine Flu eventhough the human cases is bigger than Avian Flu, but only 20% person who get infected will die from it. It's far below than Avian Influenza. So, the hazard or virulence levels of Swine Flu is lower than Avian Influenza.
In the different point of view, Pandemic Potential is determined by transmissibility rather than virulence or case fatality rate. Because a highly pathogenic virus does not usually adapt well to its host, since it tends to kill faster than it can be transmitted, and that's why pandemic level of Avian Influenza is below Swine Flu.
Swine Flu, now has reached level 5 Pandemic, while Avian Flu only level 4 pandemic..
The death toll of a future pandemic depends not only on the virulence of the virus in question but also on the rapidity with which we are able to introduce effective preventive and therapeutic measures.
World Strategy
- Active real time viral surveillance on a global scale for the effective exchange of genomic, clinical, and epidemiologic data that will give us data of pandemic wave and preparing for second (lethal) wave with vaccine and other biomedical tools.
- Reducing transmission by social distancing, promote hygiene, and vector eradication.
- Identifying high risk people
- Multinational collaboration in addressing the initial and successive waves of illness and deaths.
Principle
Pandemic can't be prevented or avoided, but we can reduce the amplitude of the wave or in the other words Reduce the impact of Pandemic.
We can achieve that, but we must work together in coordination.
Many resources and scientist warn us about next flu pandemic, possible cause by swine flu. World have ever had three previous influenza-pandemics — A/H1N1 from 1918 through 1919 also known as Spanish Flu, A/H2N2 from 1957 through 1963 also known as Asian Flu, and A/H3N2 from 1968 through 1970 also known as Hongkong Flu. And Spanish Flu become the worst ever flu pandemic, caused nearly 50-100 millions people death, worldwide. And from that pandemic, we learn about prevention, preparedness, management, and policies should be made to reduce the impact of the pandemic. It can be saw from total case and death of next pandemic was less than Spanish flu.
Past pandemics were characterized by a shift in the virus subtype, shifts of the highest death rates to younger populations, successive pandemic waves, higher transmissibility than that of seasonal influenza.
Swine Flu vs Avian Flu
H5N1 or Avian influenza subtype has spread to avian populations in more than 30 countries and infected nearly 400 persons from 1997-2004, and about 80% persons who get infected die from it, compare to Swine Flu eventhough the human cases is bigger than Avian Flu, but only 20% person who get infected will die from it. It's far below than Avian Influenza. So, the hazard or virulence levels of Swine Flu is lower than Avian Influenza.
In the different point of view, Pandemic Potential is determined by transmissibility rather than virulence or case fatality rate. Because a highly pathogenic virus does not usually adapt well to its host, since it tends to kill faster than it can be transmitted, and that's why pandemic level of Avian Influenza is below Swine Flu.
The death toll of a future pandemic depends not only on the virulence of the virus in question but also on the rapidity with which we are able to introduce effective preventive and therapeutic measures.
World Strategy
- Active real time viral surveillance on a global scale for the effective exchange of genomic, clinical, and epidemiologic data that will give us data of pandemic wave and preparing for second (lethal) wave with vaccine and other biomedical tools.
- Reducing transmission by social distancing, promote hygiene, and vector eradication.
- Identifying high risk people
- Multinational collaboration in addressing the initial and successive waves of illness and deaths.
Principle
Pandemic can't be prevented or avoided, but we can reduce the amplitude of the wave or in the other words Reduce the impact of Pandemic.
We can achieve that, but we must work together in coordination.
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Comment by yulius hermanto
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But, based on flu pandemic behaviour. If this is a first wave, then the successive wave is gonna worse. But, Let's us hope our scientist will have invented the vaccine, so the next wave will not give a significant impact.